The Silly Season Again..? Say it ain't so....!!!

As a Jamaican with a keen interest in the affairs of the country, it's hard to keep quiet and watch the country further deteriorate...one can only hope that at least one new person will take something positive away from these posts...
I must however take some time to commend a fellow blogger who wrote an insightful and pointed piece which was posted on Facebook a few days ago. I refer to no other than Mr. Richard Blackford, a man who is unafraid to call a spade a spade irrespective of his political leaning or preference. His article "No Sacred Cows" is a recommended read which addresses the failure of successive governments in Jamaica to find sustainable solutions for the advancement of our beloved nation...much respect sir.

And now todays's topic...The Silly Season Again...?

 Hon. Portia Simpson Miller-Prime Minister

Jamaica, for what its worth, is fortunate to be a strong democracy...of course there are those who would prefer one party as government forever but I doubt this will happen any time soon. Say what you want about the misgivings of the country but the democracy is strong and with the emergence of social media, it is even more pronounced today. Just about every word spoken by our politicians are immediately picked up and republished on the various sites that cater to information and news. The now infamous gaffe"we are doing less with more" by the current Prime Minister, The Hon Portia Simpson Miller went viral on social media...and that was less than twenty four hours after the comment was made. Main stream media no longer controls the airwaves and in many case are actually picking up information after it is published on a social network or some other on-line site... This in itself is awesome...since there are no biased editors or committee to suppress the opinions and ideas of the writers, the information get out there raw...sometimes, too raw.

Jamaica today is a politically charged environment and there is nothing that fires up the sentiments like a political poll. Whether its done by Bill Johnson or Don Anderson the two premier pollsters on the island, the response is usually the same...the supporters of one side, usually the one coming out

Bill Johnson-Pollster

in a negative light, will immediately cry foul. The analysts will reawaken from the dead and for days following the publication of the poll results, all media will be inundated by comments and opinions about the poll results. Some critics, unaware of their obvious biases, will insist that the poll results are biased and therefore not worth the newsprint it is published on... 

Don Anderson-Pollster

Since the thrashing of the JLP by the PNP in December 2011, the pollsters went into hibernation. Usually, after an election and the change of government, there would be polls at various stages to give an indication of how the new government is doing.This time however, the pollsters have been doodling for the past two years and there was not a peep about the performance of the Portia Simpson led government. One had to settle for what was being published in the social media or the occasional article or statement by  a member of civil society but there was no indication of how the public was feeling in general. That was of course until a few days ago when out of nowhere, the latest Bill Johnson polls were published and what a whammy it was. Whatever is being said about polls,  they are taken seriously...and some people are petrified by the results no matter what they say in public. This is nowhere more evident than in some of the posts that are currently running on Facebook and other sites. All the analysts and pseudo-analysts are hollering from the steeples and hilltops and many are rubbishing the current results. Of course one is now also hearing from the governing party which came out at the negative end of the poll and they are actually saying that...well, we are not really surprised because our internal polls that were done a little while ago was indicating pretty much the same sentiments...Oh, really? You did an internal poll but kept it quiet because the results were unfavourable? Who exactly did that poll for you...could it be the well respected pollster One Don...aka Don Anderson? I am just asking...did you even plan on releasing that information...? I guess not. 

It is not unusual for public opinion to swing from one direction to the next but it is never an easy pill to swallow when your party leader or party on a whole is painted in a negative light. The JLP is no stranger to negative publicity and have also done an excellent job of inflicting additional negativity upon themselves. Not unlike the PNP, they have internal fights but unlike the PNP, they seem to like exposing their problems for the world to see and the recent leadership race in the party was a vexed and contentious one which continues to have a negative effect on the party. Matters were made even worse with the handling of the fallout by the party leader.

Hon Andrew Holness-Opposition Leader

One gets the sense that even now there is still quite a bit of bad blood within the party higher-ups. That of course is good news for the PNP who will not miss a chance to pour salt on that wound. The young and otherwise relatively clean Andrew Holness is coming off as a sort of tough guy who it seems would put his own ambition ahead of the future of the country and that is certainly not a good thing. That perception may be totally wrong but that's just the way it appears right now. How else can one explain the absence of people like Dr. Christopher Tufton and the silence of many others who have been in the party forever. 

That said, the polls are out and for the first time in almost four years, the Jamaica Labour Party has something to feel good about. OK, this is mostly about the party leader but it looks good on the party overall. When that large a percentage of people polled give the opposition leader such high ratings, it can only mean one thing, they are totally fed up with the PM and her approach to the governance of the country. The Opposition Leader may feel differently and may be thinking that this significant bump in popularity is his own doing but I would caution him. The good news would be even better news for the JLP if the country were in election mode. Unfortunately, elections are not constitutionally due for another two years and that may as well be a lifetime in politics. Maintaining a significant lead for that long a period is next to impossible in the Jamaican political landscape and very soon we may see another poll which shows the dead opposite of what is being reported now. So what should the JLP be doing at this crucial juncture? For starters, the opposition need to ensure that there is unity among the party leadership and the follower-ship will fall in. The respective Shadow Ministers must roll up their sleeves and get to work on the ground. They must be able to articulate the differences between themselves and the current government and speak with one voice on matters that are deemed "National Interest"...that is not happening now. 

Meanwhile, the PNP rabble-rousers are out in their numbers and they are taking no prisoners...they have poo-pood on the Bill Johnson polls and for the most part are reminding everyone of the 2011 elections when the Bill Johnson polls had the JLP ahead and the party went on to lose the election in a most humbling manner. Even after the fiasco with the current Minister of Health aka Minister Chick V and the obvious state of unpreparedness in the Health sector with the threat of the deadly Ebola Virus and no apparent plans in  place if it reaches our shores, supporters of the government are still adamant that things are just fine and all the saber rattling is just cheap politics. You know what, it may well be, however, this time the shoe is on the other foot...The Labour Party have always been the under dog in the Jamaican political landscape. The girls and boys from CARIMAC have seen to that for decades and the party is only just now waking up to that realization. In a way, I place the blame for where the party is squarely at their own feet...for the most part they have been intellectually and otherwise lazy. They have allowed the PNP to define them over and over...and instead of taking the fight to them, they have mostly fought among themselves. 

There is hardly any likelihood that there will be a General Election in Jamaica anytime soon and with this very damaging poll, the PNP would be crazy to call for one. However, the politicking is on in earnest and while the JLP basks in the findings of this most recent poll, the PNP are probably meeting behind closed doors and strategizing on how to make a quick comeback. Is it that simple...well, only time will tell...after all, when the JLP left office in December of 2011, the rate of exchange was somewhere in the region of 85:1 and today if the truth is to be told, it is somewhere in the region of 120:1 never mind what is published daily by the Central Bank...Unemployment remains a major crisis as borne out in that same poll and the incidents of Police killings and the poor handling of the now International disgrace surrounding the killing of the young Mario Deane while in Police custody should all be matters of grave concern for the government. But the tides can change rapidly and all that is needed is for a member of the Opposition to say or do something stupid and the boys and girls from CARIMAC will have a field day...Are we in the silly season again...? A more fitting question would be...Are we ever out of the silly season in Jamaica?